Comments on: Ten emerging technology trends to watch over the next decade

By: jester

jester — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 07:47:45 +0000

the best
thank you for the knowlege the you give to me

By: jester

jester — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 07:46:43 +0000

the best

By: Dr. Nimita Limaye

Dr. Nimita Limaye — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 04:02:22 +0000

Fascinating article. Nootropics, synthetic biology, personal genomics and data and bio-interfaces, smart drugs. All of these will interconnect somewhere. Will this at times seems far-fetched, I think it will not be too far off where a lot of this gets widely applied. I also liek Vladimir’s comment, “There is no such thing as a science fiction, there is only science eventuality”. I think all of this will happen, but the success will be based on the appropriate and effective deployment of these technologies.

Thank you for writing such an interesting article!

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By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 14:28:31 +0000

Thanks for the reality check Robert – which confirms my suspicions that we need to take the blinkers off when it comes to assuming innovation will flow efficiently out of research investment, and we need to rethink how to best use science discovery and tech innovation.

I couldn’t agree more that predicting tech success stories is near-impossible, and gets harder the more precise you try to be. Yet I also think it is essential to at least get a handle on emerging trends if innovation is to be coupled more strongly to effective use. Predictions will be wrong – that’s a given. But hopefully they will be less wrong that simply sticking our heads in the sand

By: Robert Mucic

Robert Mucic — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 06:29:04 +0000

A lot of opinions to consider, and this has been brought up above – but I will chime in. Before you read my take – here’s my qualifications. A very successful graduate career, with a super successful professor. I now have 30 patents, Nature + Science published articles, and made a good amount of money from stock options in one company (and hopefully will make more in another). But after 10 years of being an industrial scientist/engineer – I realized that applications from discovery is very very rare. It is more like discovery from applications.

At one company, over 300 million dollars invested – no real products in the marketplace. How many neat things were found? Many, but they had no room and were pushed aside. In Academia, people make room for interesting things.

My main point is this – you can’t predict what will be useful and common (ever read the Black Swan by Taleb) – and industry makes it worse.

By: Vladimir Mironov

Vladimir Mironov — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:59:31 +0000

If some brave Venture Capitalist firm will decide to give me $10 mln
I can develop industrial prototype of large scale production in vitro meat during
5 years.
It is difficult to bioprint human organ if funding agency does not want invest because they have “an impression” that it is not possible to accomplish during 10 years. Now with secured $20 mln NSF grant we definately can make certain progress in organ biofabrication.
Thus: perception and funding has a strong connection.
The only one way to create the future is not by speculative forcasting but
by actual work on building this future.
So when people are talking about future :
“When human organ will be bioprinted?” – Is it a wrong question
The right question is: “How much it will cost?”.
One can learn about it from the history of development of military technology.
What is better to spend annually $600 bln to develop technology which can kill human being more effectively or spend at least $1bln on development of promising technologies which can actually save human life.
Intel built $2 bln plan in China to produce microprocessors.
Why we could not build $1bln plan to bioprint human organs.
What is more important for society iPhone or Bioprinter?
New bomber or organ bioprinting plant?

I hope that one day USA President will say in his/her speech:
” I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, bioprint human organ and implant it safely to the human”.

By: Vladimir Mironov

Vladimir Mironov — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:28:15 +0000

It is all depend what definition of so-called “reality” is…
Tissue engineered organ is already a clinical reality.
People are already bioprinting branched vascular vessels.
Moreover, one group in France really demonstrated bioprinting of bone in vivo.
Sometimes impression is just a replacement of real knowledge.
But I 100% agree on value of understanding of underlying biology.
“Face off” movie was science fiction in 1997, in 2003 Pittsburgh robotic experts introduced a concept of bioprinting in vivo and in 2009 I saw poster presentation with title printing in vivo.
San Diego based company “Organovo” introduced a first prototype of future clinical bioprinter last year…
Again my point is :
“There is no such thing as a science fiction, there is only science eventuality”
I think we must accept this as a reality.

By: Vladimir Mironov

Vladimir Mironov — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:15:24 +0000

Hello Mike,
I think you can try a first “shmeat” soon but not in USA. In The Netherland
Dutch guys got $2 mln grant and published already one professional review paper.
Dr Krumel – who is a Chair of Department of Surgery at Stanford University and author of new textbook on Innovation in surgery wrote
” There is no such things a science fiction, there is only science eventuality”.
New Harvest website content a lot of information about so-called “shmeat” .
I somehow think that it is a better source of information about “shmeat” then Colbert show.
Concerning tissue engineering.
If attention can bring money for reasonable projects then it is probably justifiable. Tissue engineering got a lot of attention but the problem is that tissue engineers did not deliver yet too much. According to Google. Trends interest to tissue engineering is going down. Stem cells or Synthetic Biology is now “A Next Big Thing” in biology and medicine. In order to adapt tissue engineers added term “Regenerative Medicine ” (or application of developmental and regenerative and stem cells biology in clinical medicine) to the official name of their society. It is called TERMIS now . I think it was a very smart move…
Adaptation is an art of survival according to Mr. Darwin.

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By: nanotürkiye

nanotürkiye — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 08:48:54 +0000

Thanks for the list. It is easy to read but difficult to write. Thank you for your efforts!

I think that nanotechnology will not be so popular in the next decade, but it will be discussed more realistically and applied more seriosuly.

Our new popular headlines will be about technologies listed in this post, applications of them will be in the next decade.

What do you think?

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[...] before the end of 2009 Andrew Maynard over at 2020science.org released a list of 10 emerging trends in technology to follow into the next decade. Since I’m really into far-future science fiction I can’t help but notice the overlap [...]

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By: Mohan Arun L

Mohan Arun L — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 09:01:32 +0000

Great list! It seems to be missing something about nanotechnology though, or am I missing something. I havent read it fully, I am just printing it out before reading. I thought nano-scale mechanical and electronically controlled instruments and motors and biologic devices such as devices which propel themselves through your arteries and blood vessels cleaning up cholesterol deposits (micro motors with nano level navigation capabilities) should be achievable within the next decade?

By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:07:29 +0000

I couldn’t agree more Steve. I was being a bit of a tease here highlighting the emerging technology trends without addressing the implications of these trends. But there is no doubt in my mind that as these and other technological advances gather speed, we are going to need new and innovative thinking on how we ensure their appropriate development and use in an increasingly complex social/economic/political environment.

By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:03:45 +0000

Thanks Vladimir,

My own impression is that we have a long way to go in understanding the underlying biology before organ printing becomes a reality – but definitely one to watch for the future!

By: Emerging technology debates « Testing hypotheses…

Emerging technology debates « Testing hypotheses… — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 12:26:20 +0000

[...] that are going to shape the coming decade? This is a question addressed by Andrew Maynard in a recent post on 2020Science. In my opinion Andrew has come up with a pretty sensible list, but, as I commented [...]

By: Steven Hill

Steven Hill — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 12:06:41 +0000

This is an excellent and comprehensive list. What an exciting future we have to look forward too! Or do we? The pace of technological innovation raises the question of how can society make balanced and robust decisions about the deployment of new technologies. I suspect this represents as much of a challenge as making some of the scientific advances needed to make these technologies real.

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 14:26:37 +0000

Now that’s futuristic! Printing humans, awesome. I love tissue engineering, but it doesn’t receive the attention it deserves in my opinion.

By the way, when can I try shmeat Vladimir?

By: Vladimir Mironov

Vladimir Mironov — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 21:02:38 +0000

The essence of synthetic biology is developing or creating something using molecular engineering tools that a) does not exist b) has useful practical purpose.
I think in reality synthetic biology can lead to synthetic cells, extracellular matrices, tissues, organs and humans. These are possible scenarios for future developments:
a) synthetic biomembrane + synthetic cytoskeleton + synthetic genes = synthetic cell;
b) synthetic cells + synthetic extracellular matrix = synthetic tissues;
c) synthetic tissues + synthetic tissues + synthetic tissues = synthetic organs
(organ printing = computer-aided additive 3d living tissue biofabrication);
d) synthetic organs + synthetic organs + synthetic organs = synthetic organism
( human printing).
If we can print human organs and eventually whole humans then we can design human evolution. The most essential basic aspects of human life such as birth, reproduction, diseases and death will change dramatically.
Everything can be bioprinted again and again from the scratch with desirable level of diversity.
Thus, the idea of bio-interface or hybrid human-machine is nothing more then continuing of underestimating, neglecting or ignoring the real transforming power and long term impact of emerging field of synthetic biology.
Of course, human printing and even engineering of artificial living human cells or protocells from the scratch is a very log shot, but the first human organ will be bioprinted from preexisting cells during next decade with high level of predictibility.
The future is in combination of Info-Nano-Bio-Robo.
So: my point is that organ printing (or synthetic biology on tissue and organ level) can be one of ten emerging technology trends to watch over the next decade.

By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 17:56:10 +0000

very weird – my first reply to your comment disappeared. Is my spam filter now filtering me I wonder!

You are absolutely right – although it wasn’t explicit in the piece, I did have the broader social/ethical/political issues going around my head as I put the list together. I didn’t want to get bogged down by these here, but rest assured, I will be covering them on 2020 Science – as I have already done for some of the emerging technologies.

For now though I’ll limit myself to saying that most of these technologies have potential for social good (giving away my politics there…) but also could be very damaging if not handled appropriately. In some cases, there could be serious consequences to NOT developing them – especially as the challenges of living in an over-populated, resource-starved world increase. But the key here has to be working out how to develop them responsibly.

By: pligg.com

pligg.com — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 04:14:20 +0000

Ten emerging technology trends to watch over the next decade…

1. Geo-engineering (engineering the climate on a global scale) 2. Smart Grids (delivers electricity from suppliers to consumers using two-way digital technology to control appliances at consumers’ homes to save energy, reduce cost and increase reliabi…

By: Jody Roberts

Jody Roberts — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 14:57:43 +0000

A very interesting list. I wonder how many of these we’ll have already forgotten by the end of the decade. But there’s another element sticking out here: most of these technologies have fairly serious ramifications (politically, ecologically, morally). Since this blog is ostensibly about “developing science and technology responsibly” I wonder if you can comment about the responsibility of developing (or not developing) some of these areas of research.

By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 12:20:55 +0000

A very fair question!

I like my caffeine, which some claim is a rather well established nootropic, but I’m not sure I buy that. Beyond this, I don’t take anything close to a nootropic I’m afraid. When I did the straw poll earlier this year, I was surprised to find my attitudes somewhat out of sync with many of my peers, but I don’t like the idea of messing with my mind just so I can work harder/better! I’d rather be happy with myself than artificially enhanced to meet social expectations – not that I am, but we’re talking ideals here (And you need to be aware that I’m the sort of person who’s most adventurous forays into therapeutics usually involve the occasional use a couple of Tylenol to counter the effects of another social drug…).

That said, there are plenty of people who make a strong case for taking nootropics.

Of course, the pressure is then on me – if my peers are out-performing me because they pop pills, what do I do? Conform and keep up, or resist and sink? I sincerely hope there’s a third option out there somewhere…

By: George Elvin

George Elvin — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 11:50:48 +0000

Very inspiring to speculate about what life will be like (and what we will be like) ten years from now as these technologies converge.

And I can’t resist asking one question that may be too personal for you to respond to: What nootropics do YOU take?

By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 21:57:53 +0000

Now that’s an intriguing one! I’m yet to be convinced about the impact of social gaming – but I can see how it could be one of those trends that suddenly and radically flips society.

Would love this in the mix on the discussion on the 2020 science FB page, if you felt like adding it: http://www.facebook.com/pages/2020-Science/244290147558?v=app_2373072738#/topic.php?uid=244290147558&topic=14983

By: Scott Lewis

Scott Lewis — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 21:32:04 +0000

What about social gaming? Games are going to have a greater effect on the future of our planet than all those items combined. Especially in the next 10 years as “Everyone” starts playing for more than just entertainment.

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By: Hilary Sutcliffe

Hilary Sutcliffe — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 15:41:04 +0000

Like this a lot, as usual! Very helpful and totally agree about nano. Love to know what others think should be on the list.

I wondered if military apps may have a bigger influence than we can currently see? Though the apps will use many of the areas you mention here, it would be really interesting to get your views on military tech and its implications of specifically one day?

By: Andrew Maynard

Andrew Maynard — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 14:02:21 +0000

Thanks Stuart. I absolutely think that we’ll see a move toward a more distributed infrastructure – although how far we go in that direction over the next ten years is uncertain. However, such an infrastructure is highly unlikely to work without an appropriate smart grid – we need some way of connecting the various power sources to users intelligently.

By: Stuart

Stuart — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 12:47:51 +0000

A more diverse list than I expected, thanks for enlightening me. I would ask though why you felt the need to include smart grids? Do you not think that over the next decade, a more distributed infrastructure will arise?

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