Part 2 of a series on rethinking science and technology for the 21st century
In the previous post in this series I introduced the idea of the three “C’s:” Coupling Communication and Control—three factors that together challenge conventional ideas on how science and technology are best developed and used within society. Following on from that introduction, I want to focus more closely on the first of these: Coupling.
I haven’t actually got much to say here that is new or unfamiliar—most of the new stuff will probably come when I reach the third “C”—Control. In fact, the concepts buried in the idea of coupling are somewhat obvious. But that doesn’t make them any less significant.
Very simply, coupling refers to the interconnectedness between society’s actions and global environmental re-actions…
Up until recently, it was assumed that the world was so large, and humanity so small, that whatever we did would simply be absorbed by the Earth. Oceans, the atmosphere, the planet, were so massive that at worst our actions would cause minor blips in the system, which would dissipate over time.
We now know that this is not the case. There is a complex dynamic between people and the Earth that has existed for millennia. But this coupling wasn’t apparent while the global population was relatively low and resource demands less excessive.
In the past, the lag between human actions and environmental reactions tended to be long and resulting changes gradual. This is no longer the case. The global population will hit 7 billion people in a few years—fifty years ago it was less than half this. And resource demands per capita have rocketed while supplies have not, meaning that today’s 6 billion people are stressing the system to a far greater extent than a mere doubling of the population would suggest.
The result is a closer coupling between out actions and the Earth’s reactions than ever before in the history of humanity. The current implications of this ever-closer coupling are clear, and include all the usual suspects: Increasing global pollution, acidification of the oceans, rising CO2 levels, global warming.
This coupling is getting stronger, the time lag between actions and responses is getting shorter, and the challenges of predicting and responding to society-induced changes are getting increasingly complex.
And because we are part of the system, these global changes are in turn affecting us—coupling works both ways.
Basic physics provides a simple illustration of this. I was in two minds about showing the video below because, lets face it, its less than polished (you’ll see what I mean if you watch it). But it does illustrate the coupling issue rather neatly—as long as the analogy isn’t stretched too far.
Coupled oscillators as an illustration of coupling between society and the Earth
What you see are a pair of coupled oscillators—cobbled together from garden twine and two Orangina bottles. Together, they demonstrate a physics phenomenon where energy is transferred back and forth between two identical oscillating systems—pendulums in this case.
The experiment starts off with just one of the pendulums swinging. The second seems to barely move, no matter what the first does. But over time, the second pendulum begins to be affected by the first one, and starts to oscillate with ever-larger swings. Then as the second pendulum gets into its stride, it begins in turn to drive the first one. And so the cycle goes.
The analogy to humanity and the Earth is obvious. Our actions have seemed inconsequential in the past, but they inevitably lead to environmental re-actions. These in turn end up impacting back on us. The analogy does fall apart rather quickly if pushed too far. But it’s a useful reminder that there is two-way feedback between our actions and the environment we live in, and that over time our actions come back to haunt us unless we proceed with care.
This coupling is cumulative, it is non-linear, and it is increasing rapidly as our demands on the planet grow. Which means that the consequences of what we do, and the global impacts of those consequences, are becoming harder to predict and control.
Managing this coupling will take all of our skill, and will not be possible without significant advances in science and technology. Which is why no discussion of science and technology and their role in society can afford to neglect it.
But the story doesn’t end there. Growing global demands are strengthening the coupling between people and the planet. But other factors are also playing into this complex relationship; magnifying the challenges emerging in an already serious situation. One of these factors is the rapid evolution of global communications systems, which is shaking up how information and ideas flow around the globe.
This virtual coupling between people will be the focus of the next post in this series.
Notes
Rethinking science and technology for the 21st century is a series of blogs drawing on a recent lecture given at the James Martin School in Oxford. This is a bit of an experiment—the serialization of a lecture, and a prelude to a more formal academic paper. But hopefully it will be both interesting and useful. I’ll be posting a “rethinking science and technology” blog every week or so, interspersed with the usual eclectic mix of stuff you’ve come to expect from 2020science.
Previously: Science, technology and the three “C’s:” Communication, Coupling and Control
Next: Communication: Science and technology in a connected world