There’s something rather liberating about being asked to give a no-holds talk on your perspective on life, the universe and everything. So when the Cincinnati Contemporary Arts Center asked if I would speak as part of their “Where do we go from here?” series, I jumped at it.
No holds barred is probably an exaggeration – I’ve been asked to talk about my perspective on what we face in the future and how we re going to handle it. And I should probably be mindful of the audience’s sensibilities. But even so, that’s a pretty large almost-blank canvas to work with.
And to fill this canvas, I’m going to talk about “small gods”.
Actually, I’m going to talk about risk – which is at least something I know a bit about. But the central question here is whether we are up to handling the future. Are we sufficiently aware of our limitations that we are able to build a better future through partnerships and humility? Or are we merely “small gods” – people with a smidgen of power who mistakenly think they rule the world?
And as you would expect, I will be grounding this in technology innovation. Of course, tech innovation is only one factor influencing the future. But it is a pretty important one – there aren’t many global issues that either haven’t been enabled or exacerbated by technology innovation (WikiLeaks comes to mind as the issue of the moment), or couldn’t be handled better through a more effective use of tech innovation.
Here’s the official blurb:
Some believe human ingenuity can solve all ills. Some believe technology will transform the world. Some believe we are on the verge of creating life and bending it to our will. Some people believe we are gods. But what if we are small gods–knowing just enough to be dangerous as we flex our technological muscles? Looking to the future, we are facing some of the greatest challenges in human history. We will turn to technology as we strive to build a sustainable future–we already are. But how do we ensure the technologies we embrace do more good than harm? As we ‘go from here’ into an uncertain future, how do we avoid the temptation to act like small gods and learn to harness the power of technology for good?
And just in case you are interested, here’s the slightly longer (but not half so catchy) summary that I’ll use as my starting point:
We are at a turning point in human history. People are more technologically capable than they have ever been. Scientists and engineers are developing a unsurpassed mastery over the building blocks of everything around us – from atoms and molecules to the DNA that defines every living organism. Yet as a species we face unprecedented challenges – ensuring upward of seven billion people can live comfortably in a shrinking and interconnected world where food, water and energy are increasingly precious resources. As our technological prowess is matched by the growing challenges we face, it is by no means clear over whether our actions will take us to a future heaven or hell.
How we navigate this uncertain future depends on one small, four letter word – “risk”. In the 21st century, risk – and how we handle it – will influence everything from curing cancer to putting food on the table to enhancing human abilities. Technologies that are just over the horizon have the potential to profoundly change our lives. Designer life forms; while-you-wait personal genome sequencing; climate-engineering; drugs designed to make you smarter; batteries made by viruses – these and other innovations are on their way – some are happening now. Each has the potential to make our lives better. But the consequences of getting them wrong are far from certain. As we develop them, we need to ask: Are we truly masters of our universe, or are we merely small gods – with just enough knowledge to cause a lot of damage?
How we deal with risk makes all the difference. Business as usual – and we run the danger of becoming small gods. Thinking – and acting – differently about risk, and we have the chance to build a better world.
As we move on from here into a technologically complex future, which will it be?
The talk is at 4:00 PM on December 11, at the Cincinnati Contemporary Arts Center.
Update 12/6/10: Got the time wrong!! Talk starts at 4:00 PM on the 11th.
pshaw-‘no holds barred’ is not an exaggeration (In fact, you could even make up a fantasy scenario of what the future holds: in a perfect world; if you had things your way; or if nothing stood in the way. We’d be totally cool with that, we’re a curious and playful bunch). So yes, you are spot on–you have carte blanche and we couldn’t be more thrilled with what you have in store for us! Thank you, Andrew, for preparing such an exciting topic. We are over the moon and we can’t wait to welcome you (back) to Cincinnati.
Lets not forget the more precedent issue surrounding the topic of risk management: It largely determines who will be raking in the money, and hence is subject to potential corruption.
If history has anything to say about this then it is clear that at the time when the risk has been analyzed and the “fit entities” have been given permission to proceed that an illusion is cast into being which takes over and abandons the controlling reign of risk management in favor for it’s new found liberty and consensus of permission. Often this ends in that once apt entity falling into misalignment with the correct way forward (disaster) and inspiring a new generation of regulatory thought to bring risk analysis to the table again. And the cycle goes on…
Or does it?
When i recall instances of “real time risk management” during a project ( that is, a process of risk evaluation that is continuous) the risk analyst is more often then not seen as a nuisance, least of course they are sizing up the competition and asked to draft a report on the best way to win at a game.
How can competing groups develop a metric of global risk when their concerns are inherently limited by the scope of their agency?