I had a roller coaster of an interview with Seth Shostak (Director of the Center for SETI Research and host of Big Picture Science) last week on risk and black swan events.
I was poised to talk about rare but high impact events like a mega-eruption at Yellowstone National Park, or a major asteroid hit.
I was going to put these into context with more common risks – such as getting cancer, dying from excessive heat, or being killed by a dog bite (yes, it happens more than you’d think).
I was prepared to talk with authority about micromorts, and the relative risk of being killed in a fall versus a car crash (surprisingly similar as it turns out).
I’d done my homework.
Not that it mattered. Like all the best interviews, this one went off piste at frightening speed.
We talked about the risks of new technologies; the dangers (or not) of using cell phones; probability distributions and sparse risk-event data sets; insurance companies and premiums; to fear – and sharks; dread; emotional responses to perceived risks; getting your kids vaccinated (do); familiar risks; unfamiliar risks; ebola; confusing concern with fear; making sense of big numbers. We even talked about how extending our lifespans to centuries might change how we think about risk.
We didn’t talk about micromorts.
But with hindsight, that may have been the wafer thin mint that pushed us over the edge of risk-gluttony. A black swan event well-avoided.
You can hear the full episode at Big Picture Science on the Tale of the Distribution. My segment begins at 37:55
(And, just in case you’re wondering, your chances of dying in a mega-eruption at Yellowstone during a one month vacation, are around a tenth of a micromort. Probably.)