How do we chart a path forward toward the effective and responsible development and use of new technologies? For the next two years, the World Economic Forum Meta-Council on Emerging Technologies will be tackling this and other questions as it develops ways of supporting informed decisions on technology innovation in today’s rapidly changing world.
I’ll be joining my fellow meta-council members in Dubai next week as we begin to flesh out our plans for the next 24 months. In preparation for this, I’ve been thinking through some of the broader framing issues that are important when considering emerging technologies. In no particular order:
Understanding the role of technology trends in enabling innovation and raising opportunities and challenges, as opposed to discrete technologies
Broad, headline-grabbing technology innovation trends include nanoscale science and technology; gene editing; synthetic biology; human enhancement; next generation computing; autonomous vehicles; and many others. These are often collections of technological capabilities tied together by common factors – either within a specific domain of science and technology, or in the applications domain. They are rarely discrete technologies.
Recognizing the importance of convergence between technologies and technology trends in stimulating innovation
Technology convergence is relevant on a large scale, such as in discussions around technology clusters such as Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information technology and Cognition-based technology (so-called NBIC convergence), and other combinations of what’s capturing people’s imagination – although these clusterings are are often somewhat artificial constructs. Convergence also relevant at a much smaller scale, and often the less constrained innovators are within specific domains of technology, the more creative they are able to be. This small-scale convergence may be more important than the acronym-heavy trends, as many advanced products and processes rely on synergies between multiple technologies to be competitive. It’s very rare that a mono-technology product (or even one built on just two or three technologies) does well, apart from perhaps at early stages of the manufacturing chain.
Differentiating between emerging technology labels of convenience, and the underlying science, technology and engineering
Labels such as “nanotechnology”, “synthetic biology”, “geoengineering” and others are used in part to capture the imaginations of innovators and investors. They are useful shortcuts for promoting sometimes-diffuse collections of technologies. But they are often not sufficiently well defined to, for instance, drive dialogue around the safety and governance of new products and processes. For economic, societal and environmental progress to be made around these labeled emerging technologies, it’s important to separate out the actual science and technology that is capable of leading to good and bad outcomes, from the rhetoric that enthuses evangelists, investors and practitioners.
Developing realistic approaches to responsible innovation
There is a growing push to understand the nature of responsibility and technology innovation within an increasingly crowded, interconnected, resource-constrained and fragile world. Yet understanding how lofty ideals around responsible innovation translate into sustainable practice requires engagement across multiple communities; from entrepreneurs, small businesses and large companies, through to academics, policy makers and implementers, NGOs; the media, and and publics more generally.
Being responsive to the dynamic between society and technology innovation – within different cultures and economies, as well as globally
The relationship between society and technology is a complex one, and one that is influenced by a multitude of factors. A failure to understand and respond to this dynamic, or a naivety as to why individuals and groups make the decisions they do with respect to emerging technologies, can jeopardize the economic, societal and environmental success of technology innovations. It can also jeopardize economies, society and the environment through ill-conceived and implemented technology innovations.
Recognizing that many transformative innovations in technology slip under the radar
Some of the most profound technological advances in society don’t make the headlines, and are only recognized within small circles of experts. The Haber-Bosch process; GMR-based hard drives; massive, inexpensive solid state memory; heterogeneous catalysts; standardizing screw threads; the credit card – there are a long list of seemingly mundane technology innovations that have had a profound impact on our lives, but aren’t recognized widely as such. This trend is likely to continue into the future, with some of the most significant advances in technology innovation being those that don’t fit into easy categories, and that don’t make attention-grabbing headlines.
Being proactive in planning for potential risks and benefits of emerging technologies
With the current rate of growth in technology innovation, reactive responses to emerging technologies are increasingly likely to be de-stabilizing economically and societally. Innovative methodologies are needed to explore potential future trajectories of emerging technologies within economic, societal and environmental domains, and nudge progress toward futures where acceptable benefits are more likely to dominate unacceptable risks.
Engaging constituencies in the process of technology innovation – including the public in its various guises
Building partnerships with key constituencies is critical to long terms success in business enterprises, and the field of emerging technologies is no exception. At its simplest, engagement should include ensuring that constituencies receive clear, understandable and relevant communications on the nature and significance of emerging technologies, and that there is a two-way exchange of views and information. Ideally, constituencies should also have an informed and influential voice in the process of technology innovation – especially where they are potentially impacted by the outcomes.
Educating the next generation of scientists, engineers, technologists, innovators, creators and decision-makers
Central to the sustained growth and use of emerging technologies in society is people who can continue to innovate, translate, design, make, maintain, and make informed decisions, within a changing technological landscape.
Avoiding the dogma that emerging technologies are the best, or even the most appropriate, solution to every problem
Societal and political engagement is more effective where there is room for dialogue that has the potential to alter future trajectories. And sometimes this means conceding that a specific technology may not be the most appropriate in a given situation.
These represent a somewhat quick and dirty synthesis of areas I’ve been working in and across for the past few years. But they are hopefully useful for starting to explore some of the broader cross-cutting factors in getting emerging technologies right.
More on the World Economic Council Global Agenda Councils: http://widgets.weforum.org/global-agenda-councils-interactive-2014/
WEF Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014 (PDF)